The Bitcoin Question Everyone Keeps Asking

Morgan Stanley's Amy Oldenburg on Bitcoin's price, self-custody, and where adoption really stands

Could Bitcoin really hit a million dollars? This week, one of Wall Street's own gave me a surprisingly honest answer.

I sat down with Amy Oldenburg, Head of Digital Asset Strategy for Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and she was wonderfully candid on the thing everyone's wondering about: why the price of Bitcoin hasn’t reached $200k+.

She talked openly about why Bitcoin has stayed stuck even as big institutions keep buying, what could finally move it, and why she wouldn't rule out much higher prices down the road — while being honest about what it would realistically take to get there.

What stood out most to me was how deeply she gets it. Amy understands the difference between Bitcoin and the rest of “crypto” — they’re not all the same thing — and she genuinely values self-custody and the right to hold your own keys, which isn’t something you hear from everyone in traditional finance. Her background is a big part of that: she came up in emerging markets, working in places where people couldn’t always trust the financial system around them, and it shapes how she sees Bitcoin today.

We’re also in a fascinating phase of adoption right now — that in-between stretch where the big institutions have arrived, but the story is still very much being written. This episode is a great window into where things actually stand, and where they might be heading.

Amy pulls back the curtain on the quiet, years-long effort it takes inside a firm like Morgan Stanley: the legal reviews, the regulatory hurdles, and the sheer operational lift of getting a traditional bank ready for an asset that trades 24/7. She walks through the launch of $MSBT — one of the most successful first-day fund debuts in Morgan Stanley’s history — and what it really took to get there.

But here’s a part I found especially interesting: even with huge demand from clients, a lot of financial advisors still aren’t recommending Bitcoin. Amy gives a thoughtful, refreshingly honest breakdown of why — the psychology and the culture behind the hesitation, and what it’ll take to finally close that gap.

We Get Into:

• Why the banks moved slowly. Because Morgan Stanley answers to the Federal Reserve, it had to clear hurdles that independent firms like BlackRock didn’t — which is part of why it had to watch competitors go first.

• Starting over from scratch. The partners and systems Morgan Stanley lined up back in 2020–2021 didn’t even exist anymore by the time they were ready in 2024, so they had to rebuild the entire plan.

• Borrowing against your Bitcoin. Amy explains how holding Bitcoin through Morgan Stanley’s platform can let clients borrow against it — up to half its value — to free up cash for things like a home or estate planning, and the trade-offs that come with it.

• Two very different worlds. Why the “winner-take-all” culture of Big Tech keeps colliding with the spread-the-risk, many-players nature of traditional finance.

Whether you’ve been in Bitcoin for years or you’re just starting to pay attention, Amy’s clarity is worth your time.

A Quick Note from the Road 🌍

I’m writing this from BTC Prague, and I have some exciting news: I got to sit down with Michael Saylor for a conversation that drops next week on the podcast, in partnership with the BTC Prague Podcast.

You won’t want to miss it - he responds at length to all of the recent criticisms about Strategy’s sale of bitcoin, confusion about MNAV guidance & the importance of the Bitcoin-per-share KPI, what it will take to get Bitcoin to $1+ million per coin and much more.

This week at BTC Prague I got to take part in several panels, sign copies of Bitcoin is for Everyone and I also attended a special Women of Bitcoin gathering — the SatoShe Soiree, organized by Lisa Tscherry — and it was a beautiful reminder of how much this community is growing, and how many incredible women are helping shape its future. More to come soon. Until then, thank you for being here and being part of this journey.

BTC Prague

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⚡ The Stack: Tools I Use and Trust

These are the companies that power Coin Stories — and you’ll see why I use them myself!

💳 Earn Bitcoin on everything you buy Gemini Credit Card — Up to 4% back in Bitcoin on gas, dining, and groceries. No annual fee. → gemini.com/natalie

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⚡ Send Bitcoin instantly over Lightning Speed Wallet — Low-cost Bitcoin payments and Bitcoin trivia (win up to 1M sats). Code COINSTORIES10 for 5,000 free sats. → speed.app/natalie

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🧠 Get 1-on-1 help setting up self-custody The Bitcoin Way — Personal guidance to master your own keys and sleep soundly at night. → thebitcoinway.com/natalie

🏛️ Hold Bitcoin in a tax-advantaged retirement account BitcoinIRA — Buy Bitcoin 24/7 inside a Traditional or Roth IRA. → bitcoinira.com/natalie

🛡️ Also in My Personal Stack

Efani — The most secure mobile service in America. Protects against SIM swaps. Trusted by CEOs and VIPs. → efani.com/natalie

CrowdHealth — I ditched fiat health insurance four years ago and joined CrowdHealth. Discounted plan at my link. → joincrowdhealth.com/natalie

Thanks for subscribing, and if this newsletter resonated, forward it to one person who needs to read it.

— Natalie

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. I am not a financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Information and opinions shared here may change without notice. Some links in this newsletter are affiliate or sponsor links, which means I may earn a commission at no additional cost to you.